How Demographics & Enrollment Trends Shape Student Housing Demand

Every investor asks the same question: what drives long-term demand?

In student housing, the answer comes down to two things you can’t fake: How many people fall within the 18–24 age range nationwide?, and how many of them actually enroll. Everything else, occupancy rates, rent growth, and asset values follow from these fundamentals.

The good news? Both trends are pointing in the right direction.

The Numbers Behind the Recovery

Total postsecondary enrollment increased 2% in fall 2025 compared to the previous year, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Undergraduate enrollment grew 2.4%, with all sectors seeing gains: community colleges up 4.0%, public four-year institutions up 1.9%, and private nonprofit four-year schools up 0.9%.

This marks a significant reversal. Between 2010 and 2021, undergraduate enrollment fell 15%, with 42% of that decline happening during the pandemic. But the trajectory has shifted. The National Center for Education Statistics projects undergraduate enrollment will increase 9% between 2021 and 2031, growing from 15.4 million to 16.8 million students.

First-year enrollment tells an even stronger story. In fall 2024, first-year undergraduate students increased 5.5% year-over-year, approximately 130,000 additional students started college. 

For student housing investors, this isn’t just data. It’s a demand you can underwrite.

The Demographic Tailwind: More College-Aged Americans

Enrollment growth matters, but population growth sets the ceiling.

Over the next five years, the 18-to-22-year-old population in top metro areas is projected to grow by more than 215,000 people, according to Berkadia’s 2025 U.S. Student Housing Market Report. 

This demographic expansion is concentrated in specific regions, and the Southeast is capturing a disproportionate share of it.

Population growth in Sun Belt states is driving university expansion. Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee are seeing both population increases and enrollment gains at public universities. The University of North Carolina System set a record for enrollment in fall 2025, with total students up 3.4% over 2024.

Meanwhile, Texas universities continue breaking records. Texas Tech University welcomed more than 7,600 first-year students, an 11.7% increase from 2024. Texas State University hit 44,596 students, up 9.6% from the previous year.

These aren’t one-year anomalies. They reflect long-term migration patterns and economic growth in university-anchored cities across the Southeast.

Why Enrollment Trends Matter for Student Housing

Demographics set the stage, but enrollment converts potential into actual demand.

College enrollment rates among 18-to-24-year-olds fluctuate based on economic conditions, employment opportunities, and the perceived value of a degree. Right now, multiple factors are aligning to support enrollment growth:

Economic pressure is pushing students toward affordable options. Public four-year universities in the Southeast offer lower tuition than coastal institutions, making them attractive to cost-conscious students and families. As education costs rise nationally, value-focused enrollment grows in secondary and tertiary markets.

Gen Z is re-embracing the college experience. After pandemic-era uncertainty about higher education’s value, Gen Z students are returning to campus in higher numbers. They want community, social experiences, and university resources not just online degrees. This shift drives demand for quality housing near campus.

Universities are investing in enrollment growth. Public institutions across the Southeast are actively recruiting students, expanding programs, and improving campus infrastructure. When universities grow enrollment, student housing demand follows immediately.

Southeast Markets: Where Demographics and Enrollment Converge

The Southeast offers something many other regions don’t: growing populations, expanding universities, and a limited new student housing supply.

According to RealPage data, high population growth states and regions recorded the strongest student housing performance. Markets with university enrollment increases and limited development pipelines are seeing rent growth and occupancy levels that outperform national averages.

This creates opportunity in secondary and tertiary Southeast markets where:

• State universities are growing in enrollment, but haven’t seen significant new housing construction
• Local population growth is feeding both enrollment and broader housing demand
• Underperforming properties can capture demand through renovations and better management

National occupancy rates reached 95.1% across top universities for the 2025-2026 academic year, one of the strongest performances in recent years, per Yardi Matrix. In Southeast markets with limited supply, occupancy is even tighter.

The Long-Term View: Population Growth Through 2031

Student housing isn’t a short-term trade. It’s a long-term hold anchored to demographic fundamentals.

The National Center for Education Statistics projects steady undergraduate enrollment growth through 2031. Female enrollment is expected to increase 9% (from 8.9 million to 9.7 million), and male enrollment is projected to grow 9% (from 6.5 million to 7.1 million).

These projections factor in pandemic impacts and long-term demographic shifts. They’re not optimistic forecasts; they’re data-driven expectations based on birth rates, immigration patterns, and historical college-going rates.

For investors, this means student housing demand isn’t dependent on short-term economic cycles. It’s tied to how many young adults exist and how many of them choose college. Both numbers are growing.

Why This Matters for Investors

Real estate returns require durable demand. Student housing offers exactly that.

Unlike traditional multifamily, where tenant demand fluctuates with employment and migration, student housing demand is anchored to universities. Universities don’t close. Enrollment may shift year to year, but university-anchored cities maintain consistent demand for quality housing.

The combination of demographic growth, rising enrollment, and limited new supply creates an environment where well-managed properties in the right markets can achieve:

• High occupancy rates (above 90% in strong markets)
• Predictable lease-up cycles (driven by academic calendars)
• Rent growth (supported by enrollment increases and limited supply)
• Long-term asset appreciation (as demand fundamentals strengthen)

Properties that deliver quality living experiences in university markets with growing enrollment aren’t just capturing current demand they’re positioned for sustained performance over the next decade.

The Foundation of Strong Returns

Demographics and enrollment trends don’t create returns by themselves. Execution does. But these trends determine which markets have the wind at their backs and which are fighting uphill.

The Southeast is seeing population growth, enrollment expansion, and limited new supply. That’s the foundation. The work is acquiring the right properties, improving them, and operating them well enough to capture the demand that’s already there.

That’s what long-term thinking looks like.

Invest Where Demographics and Enrollment Are Growing

At Ivy Capital, we invest in student housing and multifamily properties across the Southeast markets where universities are growing, populations are expanding, and demand is durable.

We don’t chase trends. We follow fundamentals.

If you’re an investor looking for partners who understand demographics, enrollment data, and how both shape long-term returns, join Ivy Capital’s network today. Let’s build value where the numbers support it.